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Table 18: Community Emissions Growth Projections by Sector <br />Community <br />Emissions <br />Growth <br />Forecast by <br />Sector <br />2005 2020 <br />Residential 235,135235,121 <br />Commercial/ <br />Industrial 95,019100,241 <br />Transportation 165,762165,766 <br />Waste 16,68816,688 <br />TOTAL 524,286524,269 <br /> <br />Residential: <br />The projected change in GHG emissions for the residential sector was calculated by a population <br />projection for University City between 2010 and 2020. This projection, which was conducted by <br />the East-West Gateway Council of Governments, expects 0.0% growth in the residential sector. <br />It is important to realize that this growth projection is indeed an approximation and as such <br />presents certain limitations; however, this projection does seem plausible given the suburban <br />location of University City, and consequently it’s corresponding inability to spatially grow. <br />Commercial/Industrial: <br />The projected change in both the community’s commercial and industrial sectors was determined <br />by estimating the annual percent change in the number of jobs in each of these sectors. As with <br />the other sectors, the commercial and industrial sectors are expected to expand at a very slow <br />rate, if at all. The East-West Gateway Council of Governments projects a 1.0% growth rate <br />between 2008 and 2020. <br />Transportation: <br />For the transportation sector, projected growth in energy demand and GHG emissions was <br />obtained from a traffic volume report developed by the East-West Gateway Council of <br />Governmentsxviii. This comprehensive report features actual VMT growth data from 1998-2005. <br />The projection developed from this report predicts a 0.6% increase in the vehicle-miles-traveled <br />(VMT) between 2008 and 2020. <br /> <br />2010-2011 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of University City, MO 26 <br /> <br />